Abstract

From 6 to 9 August 2012, intense rainfall hit the northern Philippines, causing massive floods in Metropolitan Manila and nearby regions. Local rain gauges recorded almost 1000 mm within this period. However, the recently installed Philippine network of weather radars suggests that Metropolitan Manila might have escaped a potentially bigger flood just by a whisker, since the centre of mass of accumulated rainfall was located over Manila Bay. A shift of this centre by no more than 20 km could have resulted in a flood disaster far worse than what occurred during Typhoon Ketsana in September 2009.